--- title: "Fuel Surcharge: Understanding and Preparing for the 2026 Spike | Blog Opsivia" url: https://opsivia.com/en/articles/surcharge-carburant-2026-preparer-flotte language: en-CA description: "Understand the 2026 fuel surcharge spike and discover how to protect your margins, contracts, and fleet in Quebec." source: Opsivia Conseil Inc. (https://opsivia.com) --- [Home](https://opsivia.com/en) / [Articles](https://opsivia.com/en/articles) / Fuel Surcharge: Understanding and Preparing for the 2026 Spike [Back to articles](https://opsivia.com/en/articles) Trends Diesel Fleet Quebec Pricing Transportation Fuel Surcharge # Fuel Surcharge: Understanding and Preparing for the 2026 Spike October 21, 2026 *Between January and September 2026, the average price of diesel in Quebec surged from $1.74 to $2.88 per litre. On freight invoices, the "fuel surcharge" line item followed suit—often outpacing fuel prices themselves. Here is where this increase comes from, why surcharges amplify it, and what shippers and carriers can do to better prepare.* ## 1. The Reality: Record-High Diesel Prices in Quebec After two relatively calm years ($1.79/L on average in 2024, then $1.75/L in 2025 according to the Régie de l'énergie), diesel prices skyrocketed in 2026. Diesel prices in Quebec rose by 65% between January and September 2026 *Source: Régie de l'énergie du Québec, weekly weighted average, weeks of January 5 to October 12, 2026 · 2022 record: Statistics Canada* The increase occurred in two waves: from March to April, then from July to September. In terms of monthly averages, diesel climbed from 174.2¢/L in January to 287.7¢/L in September—a 65% jump, well beyond the 2022 records. Published surcharges followed the same upward curve. At CN, the intra-Canada intermodal surcharge (Tariff 7405) jumped from 30.29% in September to 34.20% in October, reaching 40.64% in November. Canada Post's fuel surcharge for domestic parcels reached 44.5% during the week of September 21, according to CTC News. Canada Post subsequently announced a temporary 15% reduction on this surcharge from October 5, 2026, to January 3, 2027. ## 2. Where the Increase Originates: Upstream, Not at the Pump According to the Régie de l'énergie, fuel acquisition costs (rack prices) and taxes together account for more than 90% of the pump price in Quebec. That is where we need to look. | Component (diesel, Quebec) | 2025 | Week of October 12, 2026 | | Minimum Montreal rack price | $1.15/L (annual average) | $2.35/L | | Estimated retail margin (excluding taxes) | $0.12/L (annual average) | $0.07/L | | Average pump price | $1.75/L (annual average) | $2.91/L | Three key takeaways emerge: - Wholesale prices have doubled. This accounts for the bulk of the increase. - Taxes do not explain the spike. They are mostly fixed per litre. The federal excise tax on diesel (4¢/L) was even suspended from April 20 to September 7, 2026. - Retailers are not profiting off the crisis. The estimated retail margin calculated by the Régie is lower than in 2025. Another indicator: the spread between diesel and regular gasoline, which averaged about 22¢/L in 2025, reached nearly $1/L in mid-October 2026 (290.7¢ vs. 192.3¢). The issue is therefore specific to diesel, not just crude oil in general. ## 3. The Causes: A Global Diesel Shock The increase did not stem from a single event, but from several compounded shocks in 2026. The Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products transited through the strait in 2025. According to the US EIA, these volumes dropped to 4.9 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, compared to 21.6 million in Q4 2025. The lull in April explains the spring price pullback; renewed tensions in July explain the resurgence. Russia pulls its diesel from the market. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries caused a domestic shortage in Russia. Moscow, already operating under partial restrictions since January, banned all diesel exports by producers starting July 8, 2026. Refining bottlenecks. Diesel does not depend solely on crude prices, but on refining capacity. The spread between diesel and crude prices (the crack spread) reached unprecedented levels: approximately US$103 per barrel on the US Gulf Coast on September 1, 2026, compared to around $20 before the conflict. According to RBN Energy, global refined volumes fell by about 5.1 million barrels per day year-over-year in Q2. This explains why diesel prices rose much faster than gasoline. Low inventories heading into winter. The EIA forecasts that US distillate inventories will remain below their 2021–2025 average throughout its forecast horizon, keeping refining margins high. Winter adds seasonal pressure: heating oil comes from the same product family as diesel. ## 4. Why Surcharges Rise Faster Than Diesel Prices A fuel surcharge does not measure the price of diesel; it measures the spread between that price and a contractual base price (peg). This leverage effect often catches businesses off guard. Let's take a theoretical example with a base price of $1.20/L: | Average Diesel Price | Spread Above Base | Change | | $1.75/L (2025 average) | $0.55/L | — | | $2.90/L (mid-October 2026) | $1.70/L | × 3.1 | Diesel rose by roughly 65%, but the spread covered by the surcharge more than tripled. For a truck consuming 35 L/100 km, this represents approximately $0.60 per kilometre instead of $0.19. Three other mechanisms amplify or distort the picture: - The percentage applies to the freight rate. If the base rate increases, the dollar value of the surcharge also increases, even if diesel prices remain flat. - Time lag. Many scales rely on a historical average. At CN, the November surcharge is calculated based on the average price in September. Surcharges therefore continue to rise after pump prices peak and lag on the way down. - Index and currency. Some scales use a US index in US dollars per gallon. On cross-border lanes, exchange rate fluctuations compound fuel price variations. Because each carrier has its own base price, grid, and index, two 35% surcharges can reflect drastically different realities. ## 5. What We Observe in the Field Over the past ten years of advising some sixty companies on their transportation costs, I have seen the same questions surface whenever fuel surcharges are involved. In the vast majority of cases, carriers and shippers act in good faith. The challenge is not intent; it is the mechanics. A scale that must track a weekly moving market is demanding to maintain for both sides. - Which price source? Régie de l'énergie, Natural Resources Canada, EIA, or the carrier's actual net price: valid arguments exist for each. The shipper wants a public, verifiable index; the carrier wants to cover actual expenses based on its operating regions and fuel purchase agreements. Agreeing on a single source is often the first—and longest—discussion. - Which date governs? For an order spanning several weeks, should the surcharge in effect on the loading date or the delivery date apply? During periods of high volatility, the discrepancy can be substantial. There is no universal answer; the key is to document it clearly and apply it consistently, whether prices are rising or falling. - Is fuel already baked into the rate? Depending on the contract, fuel may be fully included, partially included (up to the base price), or completely excluded. In older agreements, this point is often ambiguous, leading to genuine misunderstandings on both sides. - The weekly cycle dominates. A weekly revised surcharge is the most common model. It strikes a good balance between responsiveness and administrative overhead, but it requires updating grids weekly in billing systems. During rapid run-ups, carriers often absorb the lag: they pay for fuel before the surcharge adjusts. ## 6. Paths Forward No one controls the Strait of Hormuz or Russian refineries. However, every organization controls three things: its surcharge formula, its consumed litres, and its budget visibility. - Draft a clear, verifiable formula. The contract should specify a single source (in Quebec, weekly reports from the Régie de l'énergie; across Canada, Natural Resources Canada; the EIA for US lanes), the base price, the grid, update frequency, the reference date (pickup or delivery), and the base amount (linehaul freight only, or accessorial charges as well). - Clarify what the base rate covers. The contract should state in black and white whether the rate includes fuel, either fully or up to the base price. Without this, you risk unintended double-dipping or, conversely, an undercompensated carrier. Reviewing the base price and freight rate together prevents both. A surcharge calculated per kilometre based on standard fuel economy often reflects actual costs better than a percentage of the freight rate. - Audit invoices collaboratively. Regular audits—ideally shared between shipper and carrier—confirm that the invoiced percentage matches the grid and index for the period, and that it applies to the correct line items. With scales changing weekly, discrepancies are common, almost always unintentional, and easily resolved when caught early. - Reduce litres consumed. Every litre saved escapes the price hike: improve load factors, consolidate shipments, reduce empty backhauls, optimize route planning, allow more flexible delivery windows, and shift to rail for long-haul moves where feasible. - Diversify energy sources where relevant. For certain urban or regional routes, fleet electrification becomes a viable option when evaluating total cost of ownership (TCO). In Quebec, the Écocamionnage program was renewed with a $145.4M budget and remains open until March 31, 2028. It supports electrification, energy efficiency, and alternative fuels in freight transportation. - Budget with scenario planning. As of October 2026, the EIA projects an easing in 2027 (averaging around US$4.50 per gallon for US diesel, down from $6.29 in September), but with diesel remaining above US$4 per gallon. Rather than banking on a quick return to 2025 prices, it is prudent to model two or three scenarios and discuss them early with your partners. Finally, a surcharge is a risk-sharing mechanism, not a profit driver. Everyone wins when the formula is simple, written, and applied symmetrically on both sides: the carrier is reimbursed for incurred costs, and the shipper knows exactly what it is paying for. ## In Summary The 2026 surge is not an invoicing anomaly. It reflects a global shortage of refining capacity, exacerbated by two conflicts. Prices may ease in 2027, but there is no guarantee of a return to 2025 levels. Companies that navigate this best are those that understand their surcharge formula, measure what they actually pay, and reduce their fuel consumption. ## Sources *Data accessed on October 21, 2026.* - Régie de l'énergie du Québec — Average Posted Diesel Fuel Price, 2026 - Régie de l'énergie du Québec — Weekly Bulletin, Week of October 12, 2026 - Régie de l'énergie du Québec — Annual Report on the Retail Market for Gasoline or Diesel Fuel as of December 31, 2025 - Statistics Canada — [Win (for) diesel: Moving the economy cheaper in 2023](https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/4042-win-diesel-moving-economy-cheaper-2023) - CN — [Fuel Surcharge](https://www.cn.ca/en/customer-centre/prices-tariffs-transit-times/fuel-surcharge/) - Canada Post — Temporary Fuel Surcharge Relief - CTC News — [Diesel prices push Canadian freight costs sharply higher](https://ctcnews.ca/2026/09/22/diesel-fuel-diesel-prices-canadian-freight-costs-september-2026/) - Trucknews / The Canadian Press — Federal Excise Tax Suspension - Le Grand Continent — Closure of the Strait of Hormuz, February 28, 2026 - Connaissance des énergies (AFP) — Hormuz: IEA Forecasts and EIA Volumes - Connaissance des énergies (AFP) — Hormuz, Approximately 20 Mb/d in 2025 According to the IEA - Meduza — [Russia bans diesel exports](https://meduza.io/en/news/2026/07/08/russia-bans-diesel-exports) - RBN Energy — [The $100/bbl diesel crack](https://rbnenergy.com/daily-posts/blog/us-refiners-already-running-hard-relief-diesel-remains-elusive) and [How 2026 exposed the fragility of global refining](https://rbnenergy.com/daily-posts/blog/100bbl-diesel-crack-or-how-2026-exposed-fragility-global-refining) - American Action Forum — [U.S. Diesel Prices Hit Record High](https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/u-s-diesel-prices-hit-record-high-factors-and-implications/) - EIA — Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 - Government of Quebec — Écocamionnage Program and Renewal Until 2028